Will 2016 be the year 'of the lawyer-politician?

In 2016, UK politicians will grapple with the some of the most pressing political issues so far this century. 

The political agenda is set to include a consultation over the British Bill of Rights, the highly anticipated EU referendum, prison reform, and the Mayor ?of London elections, to name but a few. With such weighty issues in store, will lawyer-politicians come to the fore of the debates?

Historically, lawyers have fared well in political office. Former barrister Tony Blair, for example, was prime minister for a decade, while past Conservative ?leader Michael Howard, an employment and planning barrister, had some success in increasing his party’s seats prior to David Cameron’s tenure. 

Ethical, reasoned, socially ?and commercially aware, and (occasionally) respected, there are many reasons why – in theory – lawyers make good politicians. Yet in recent years the most prominent MPs have been far from legally trained, instead rising from more humble origins, such as former journalists George Osborne and Michael Gove, or Cameron himself, a past government researcher.

Nevertheless, ex-lawyers from across the political spectrum will be aiming to add their voices to the debate and influence the outcome. But will they be successful?

Bill of Rights

The justice secretary has pushed back the long-awaited and controversial British Bill of ?Rights until 2016. As has been highlighted time and again, Gove has no legal background. Neither did his predecessor, ?Chris Grayling, the first non-lawyer Lord Chancellor in more than 400 years, and we all know how that turned out. 

Gove’s lack of legal acumen has not stopped him rolling ?back many of Grayling’s failings; however, his failure to repeal ?the Human Rights Act within the first 100 days of the new parliament will be seen as something of an embarrassment for him and the prime minister. 

Dominic Grieve QC, the former attorney general, was relegated to the backbenches for his opposition to scrapping the ?Act, yet he has sustained his argument that the government will destroy human rights across Europe. He can be expected to continue his criticism if the Tories follow through with their plans.

Meanwhile, the shadow Lord Chancellor, Lord Falconer, has unsurprisingly condemned the government for eroding people’s rights. And the Scottish National Party’s Nicola Sturgeon, who practised law before her election to the Scottish parliament, has stated that the Scottish government will do ‘absolutely everything’ to oppose the Act’s repeal. Is Gove set for a defeat in 2016?

Brexit implications

Plans for an in-out referendum ?in 2017 are well underway, as Cameron tries to convince EU leaders of his reform plans. ?The prime minister hopes to strike out a new deal before issuing a UK vote, which would have serious repercussions for the legal profession.

Research carried out for the Law Society found that the legal sector could be damaged by an ‘out’ vote. Figures suggest the sector could lose between £225m and £1.7bn annually by 2030 if the UK left the EU, leaving it 1.5 per cent smaller. MPs with an affinity to the profession will be keen to iron out these concerns.

Prison reform

The justice secretary is said to ?be considering cutting jail terms to reduce prison numbers in the new year. Lord Falconer has blamed ministers’ failures to heed previous warnings about prisons being at breaking point for the rotten prison estate. 

The government will surely be pushed on this issue next year by Lord Falconer and his House of Commons proxy, Andy Slaughter. We are likely to see just how much of a true liberal reformer Gove really is.

London’s mayor

Next May will see a new mayor ?of London elected, with Labour’s candidate, Sadiq Khan, looking to take on the role. 

What will Khan’s potential appointment mean for politics ?in London, though? Affordable housing policies, a pledge to encourage greater diversity in the police, and a four-year freeze of underground fares, are all on his agenda. A background in human rights law will also do him no harm.

The UK’s hub for legal services may also benefit from having a legally trained politician in City Hall. With over half the revenue of the largest 100 international law firms generated in London, and over 100,000 lawyers employed within the capital, ?a mayor who understands the sector would be an advantage ?to the profession.

Will Khan be the legal personality of 2016? We’ll have to wait but a few short months?to find out.

Matthew Rogers is an editorial assistant at Solicitors Journal