This time last year cautious observers were venturing to predict, with much-needed feel-good optimism, that we could be out of the recession by the end of 2009. We're not '“ and if the latest wobbles in Dubai are anything to go by, we may yet hit the lower half of a 'W' recession. First to be affected would be the property market, which has fuelled and benefited from the growth of the economy in the past decade and which many see as a general barometer of the economy.
Property
Continued improvement will depend on whether buyers have regained enough confidence in the economy and on banks lending again. If things don't improve, lenders will be looking at their panels again and will reconsider keeping smaller firms on. Firms relying on referrals will also need to start reviewing their model following the SRA's new guidance and the LSB's consumer panel consultation.
On the other hand, estate agents expect more properties to come on the market in the new year, so, if lending resumes properly, conveyancers could see more light shimmering at the end of the tunnel.
Another bit of good news could be the removal of HIPs '“ which the Conservatives are rumoured to want to get rid of. This could cause an initial slow in the market ahead of the election, which could then be followed by a surge in activity.
Leasehold enfranchisement is another area that should carry on growing as leaseholders, both residential and commercial, continue to show interest.
Employment
Like property, whether company-commercial transaction work starts bubbling again will depend on banks being sufficiently confident in the economy to start lending again. But one area in commercial that is likely to continue unabated is employment. More bad news in the economy and firms will continue to lay off staff. A few 'sex in the City' claims are underway and should de decided early in the new year. There is also the raft of equal pay claims still trundling along in the public sector. Plus, a few cases decided this year are expected to trigger similar claims next year: discrimination by association after the Coleman ruling, for instance, and the growing number of claims around the 'new' discriminations. Think religious discrimination after the Ladele cases earlier this week, including that of British Airways check-in assistant Nadia Eweida, now under appeal, as well as more niche issue such as whether volunteers are covered by discrimination legislation. Religious discrimination is also likely to take another turn outside employment law following the Supreme Court ruling in JFS last week.
Family
The effect of the recession will continue to be felt in family law too. As divorcees work to rebuild their assets, lawyers expect more applications for variations in maintenance payments or to defer capital payments. Myerson is one such case, where the husband failed to secure a review of his contributions but has applied for a variation of the timing.
Because the value of assets will remain volatile, judges will also be more likely to want divorcing couples to share the risk of fluctuation by dividing the assets in specie.
The rise in instructions over prenups is also likely to continue, particularly in the wake of the Radmacher case '“ under appeal and probably to be decided in the spring. On the legislative side, much will depend on the Law Commission making headways on a number of its consultations on prenups, postnups and matrimonial property regimes. The word around Petty France is that the commission could report before the summer.
Expect little change, on the other hand, on cohabitation, with the current government officially waiting for Scotland to report back on its experience with statutory cohabitation rules, and the Conservatives having made clear they weren't in favour.
In public law, the spate of care cases started in the aftermath of Baby P should continue next year.
Then there are two government proposals. The first is that experts paid to provide evidence in court should be named. Lawyers have already expressed concern that while experts should be accountable there is a risk their independence could be undermined if they are exposed to public scrutiny.
The second proposal would further increase court openness. While the principle is supported by most, there are clear concerns over unwanted intrusion in personal financial affairs and the risk, in care cases, that children could feel intimidated by the more open court process and could be identified despite anonymity orders.
Which naturally takes us to the next big issue: libel and privacy.
Media
Earlier this month, Mr Justice Eady was at pains to show that judges in his position were not against the press or in favour of claimants in libel cases but merely applied the law. Ten years ago, government plans for the introduction of libel legislation were rejected but they could be coming back as the present government is considering various new proposals. This is likely to gather speed in the new year, starting with the possible introduction of a new single publication rule. Keep an eye out for the report by the Commons Media Culture and Sports Committee, expected imminently.
Plans for cost capping could also get the go-ahead after a one-year pilot started in October. Some media lawyers say it is both unjustified and unworkable. Many also ask why the government could not wait for Lord Justice Jackson to report on his review of costs, expected on 14 January.
Meanwhile, Max Mosley's battle to change privacy rules will carry on in Strasbourg. The application was ruled admissible last month, but Solicitors Journal understands that the government may be in negotiation to bring about a change in the law that would address the concerns raised in the case. This could involve the introduction of prior notification to individuals targeted by press articles.
Personal injury
Personal injury is another area likely to see a flurry of activity. Already, this year has seen a rise in reported cases involving insurance fraud and exaggerated claims and lawyers believe that these will continue to rise next year.
But PI lawyers have their eyes on the Cotswold Geotechnical case, the first prosecution under the Corporate manslaughter Act, due to start at the end of February.
Industrial diseases will continue to occupy centre stage, with a follow up to the consultation on pleural plaques and growing pressure for new rules to be adopted on the traceability of former employers and the setting up of an employers' insurance bureau similar to the MIB.
Limitation will also be a main issue that will continue to develop next year in the wake of the Hoare case, in particular around the specific question of date of knowledge.
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