Reoffending rates see notable increase

Reoffending Statistics: Analysis of July-September 2022 Offender Cohort

The latest publication from the Ministry of Justice provides comprehensive reoffending statistics for the offender cohort from July to September 2022, along with historical data from 2011 onwards. While this cohort does not overlap with any Covid-related lockdowns or other operational restrictions, it continues to be influenced by the ongoing recovery of the court system, particularly the delays in processing court cases.

Overall Reoffending Rates

The overall proven reoffending rate for the July to September 2022 offender cohort is 26.5%, reflecting an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the same quarter in 2021 and a 0.7 percentage point rise from the previous quarter. This publication highlights specific trends among different categories of offenders.

Adult Offenders

• Proven Reoffending Rate: 26.2%
• Increase from Same Quarter in 2021: +1.2 percentage points
• Increase from Last Quarter: +0.8 percentage points

Juvenile Offenders

• Proven Reoffending Rate: 32.1%
• Increase from Same Quarter in 2021: +1.8 percentage points
• Decrease from Last Quarter: -1.2 percentage points

Specific Groups of Adult Offenders

Adult offenders released from custody or starting court orders showed a proven reoffending rate of 34.1%, which represents an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the same quarter in 2021 and a rise of 0.7 percentage points from the last quarter.

For adults released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months, the reoffending rate is substantially higher at 56.9%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the same quarter in 2021. Those released from sentences of less than or equal to 6 months had a proven reoffending rate of 60.0%, up by 2.4 percentage points from the same quarter in 2021.

The figures in this statistical release indicate that the overall proven reoffending rate for the July to September 2022 offender cohort is 26.5%, marking an increase from both the same quarter in 2021 and the previous quarter. In this period, reoffending rates rose among both adult offenders (by 1.2 percentage points) and juvenile offenders (by 1.8 percentage points) compared to the same quarter last year.

This publication covers the fifth post-pandemic cohort, which does not overlap with any Covid-related lockdowns but remains affected by the ongoing recovery of the court system and the Criminal Bar Association strike. Significant decreases in reoffending rates were observed for pandemic-affected cohorts (October-December 2018 to October-December 2020). This decline has started to reverse over the past seven quarters. However, ongoing delays in case processing may result in increased numbers of reoffence convictions falling outside the one-year follow-up period and six-month waiting period, and therefore not being counted in the proven reoffending statistics.

Measurement of Proven Reoffending

An offender is included in this publication cohort if they were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a reprimand or warning between July and September 2022. A proven reoffence is any offence committed within a one-year follow-up period that leads to a court conviction, caution, reprimand, or warning within the follow-up or an additional six-month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court.

Conclusion

The publication of reoffending statistics for the July to September 2022 cohort reveals important insights into the dynamics of reoffending. The data highlights the continued impact of the pandemic and the recovery of the court system on reoffending rates. As the court system gradually recovers and processes cases more efficiently, it is anticipated that future cohorts will provide further clarity on the trends in reoffending rates. The MOJ will continue to monitor and report on these statistics to ensure transparency and inform policy decisions.

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