192,912 children had a parent in prison in England and Wales

Understanding the impact of parental imprisonment on children is crucial for developing effective support systems and policies. The Better Outcomes through Linked Data (BOLD) programme from the Ministry of Justice has conducted a groundbreaking analysis to estimate the number of children with a parent in prison in England and Wales. By linking data from multiple government sources, this report provides a clearer picture of the scale of parental imprisonment, a previously under-researched area with significant social implications.

Methodology

This report represents the first comprehensive effort to link data from His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) to estimate the number of children affected by parental imprisonment on a national scale. The methodology involved the integration of five distinct HMPPS data sources, which provided information about prisoners and their familial connections.

Data Collection

The analysis used data from:

• Five HMPPS Data Sources: These sources contain detailed information on prisoners, including their parental status.
• Free-Text Case Notes: Data science techniques were applied to analyse unstructured text from case notes, which include interactions and observations from prison and probation officers.
• HMRC Data-Matching Pilot: This pilot linked HMPPS data to Child Benefit records to validate and refine the estimates.

Methodological Steps

1. Direct Count: We first counted the prisoners identified as having children across the five HMPPS data sources. During the period from 1 October 2021 to 1 October 2022, this direct count identified 74,275 prisoners with children. This number represents 53% of the total prisoner cohort of 139,562.

2. Undercount Adjustment: To address potential undercounting, we adjusted the figures to estimate the number of prisoners with children who were not captured in the initial count. This adjustment was based on analysis of free-text case notes and results from the HMRC data-matching pilot.

3. Estimate of Children: Using the adjusted number of prisoners with children and applying an average multiplier for the number of dependent children per prisoner, we estimated that there were 192,912 children with a parent in prison during the specified period.

Findings

The findings highlight a significant number of children affected by parental imprisonment. The analysis revealed:

• Direct Count: 74,275 prisoners with children, accounting for 53% of the prisoner cohort.
• Adjusted Estimate: The number of prisoners with children is estimated to be 108,990, or 78% of the prisoner cohort.
• Estimated Children Affected: By applying the average number of children per prisoner, the report estimates that there were 192,912 children with a parent in prison.

Implications

The estimated figure of 192,912 children underscores the substantial scale of parental imprisonment and its impact on families. This hidden population faces significant emotional and social challenges, including disruption of family life, financial instability, and psychological stress. Understanding the scale of this issue is vital for developing targeted support services and interventions to mitigate the adverse effects on these children.

Policy and Support

Policymakers and support agencies can use these insights to:

• Enhance Support Services: Develop and expand services that address the specific needs of children with incarcerated parents, including counseling, mentorship, and educational support.
• Improve Data Collection: Continuously refine data collection methods to ensure accurate and comprehensive tracking of affected families.
• Promote Awareness: Increase awareness among social services, educational institutions, and community organisations about the challenges faced by children with imprisoned parents.

Limitations

While the report provides valuable estimates, there are limitations to consider:

• Self-Disclosure: The data relies on self-disclosure by prisoners, which may lead to inaccuracies or omissions.
• Extrapolation: The estimate of children with a parent in prison is based on extrapolation from prisoner data, which may not fully capture the diversity of family structures and the exact number of affected children.

Despite these limitations, the report represents a significant advancement in understanding the scope of parental imprisonment and its impact on children.

The BOLD report's findings reveal a profound and previously underestimated issue: the number of children with a parent in prison in England and Wales is substantial, affecting nearly 200,000 young lives. Addressing this challenge requires a concerted effort from policymakers, support agencies, and communities to provide the necessary support and resources to mitigate the impact of parental imprisonment on these children.

By continuing to improve data collection and understanding, we can work towards more effective solutions and better outcomes for affected families.

---