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When two wrongs almost make a right

Colin Lawson predicts that the pendulum between the FTSE 100 and commercial property has swung, and backs the FTSE 100 to deliver better investment returns in 2015.

21 January 2015

Last year I said that the predictions made by 'experts' regarding the FTSE 100 performance for 2014 were (and I'm quoting myself here), "Wildly over-optimistic".

Five leading firms made an average prediction that the FTSE 100 would close at 7,560 on 31 December. It actually closed at 6,566 - more than 1,000 points (or 14 per cent) lower than predicted, falling by 183 points from its starting point of 6,749 at the start of January 2014. Based on total returns (including dividends) I predicted that the FTSE would increase by eight per cent. It actually increased by a paltry 0.74 per cent, so even my relatively conservative prediction was way out.

However I did correctly predict that commercial property would be the best performing asset class. My guess was that the IPD (Investment Property Database) Index would exceed 12 per cent and property would increase in the region of 10 percent ...

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