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Using scenarios to explore strategic options

By Andrew Hedley, Director, Hedley Consulting

16 May 2014

In order to respond to fast changing and dynamic markets, any strategy needs to be able to accommodate unpredictable changes to future market and economic conditions. It is curious, therefore, that while most would accept that we live in an increasingly non-linear world, many strategies are still constructed using a surprisingly one-dimensional model.
They work from a known start point to
an envisaged end state with a series of largely predetermined steps in between.

Looked at from the outside, it seems that the underlying assumption is that ‘nothing will get in the way of us achieving our goals’, even though the level of control that any firm has over its environment is limited at best and non-existent in nearly all cases. When the norms of business are changing on an almost daily basis, how valid is an approach that targets goals that may be wholly inappropriate, unrealistic or just...

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