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A cross-border affair

The effects of geopolitical shifts and new trade agreements cannot be ignored. They're set to completely change the oil supply structure

4 September 2015

The last few years have proved challenging for commodity markets for a variety of reasons, but of primary significance has been the impact of slow growth and its effect on demand.

During the three years from 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2015, the Commodity Research Bureau index has fallen 10.61 per cent (in sterling terms). This is in stark contrast to the returns from equity markets such as the FTSE 100 (+30.38 per cent) and S&P 500 (+60.99 per cent) over the same period.

Many analysts have focussed on economic variables and, in certain instances, have neglected the geopolitical factors that can have a significant impact. Nevertheless this is a trend that is likely to change as geopolitical factors begin to exert a greater influence on the outlook for broader commodities. This is particularly the case given the current price of oil.

Political pacts

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