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Risk forecast: Predict your firm’s professional liability claims potential

Thomas Berman reveals how to use a weighted analysis to predict your firm's potential for professional liability claims

21 August 2013

How can law firms effectively predict their potential for professional liability claims? Lessons can be drawn from the advanced data analysis used to measure the accuracy of the US presidential election polls.

During the last US presidential election, Nathan Silver, a well-regarded statistician who developed a means by which to statistically evaluate many different kinds of activity, used his technique to determine the accuracy of the national election polls.

Silver created algorithms designed to evaluate the pollsters and the polls themselves, their own proclivities or tendencies, the content of the questions asked, the tenor and 'leaning' of the questions, as well as a host of other issues which are equally important in determining the accuracy and objectivity of the polls.

The theory Silver propounded is that, by virtue of his analysis, he could perform an accurate forecast of the election results. He was 97 per cent correct in the pr...

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