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Outlook 2015: the mending continues

Alan Higgins provides an investment overview for the year ahead

12 January 2015

We believe the gradual mending of the global economy will continue in 2015, and the best investment opportunities will be in risk assets such as equities.

The past year showed again that forecasting the economy is not the same as getting markets right. Many chose to pile into equities at the expense of bonds, and 2014 was a year when consensus trades in general were punished.

Bond ownership and valuations have rarely been as overstretched as they currently are, in our view. Yet business cycle indicators in major developed markets are positive and rising. Trends in demand and spending look firm, which we expect will get a boost from the recent sharp drop in energy prices. Against this backdrop, we see little scope for another year of strong returns from bonds, and will fund investments in risk assets mainly by being underweight fixed income.

Last year also highlighted the need to access a wide range of sources for collecting risk

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